NFL draft analysis: A deeper dive on where top Hawkeyes, Cyclones are projected to be selected

Rare is the day when Iowa State football is flirting with the first round in the NFL draft (we see you, George Amundson in 1973).

Rarer still is the draft where close to 10 percent of the first two rounds could boast collegiate ties to the state of Iowa.

But oh, the possibilities in front of the Hawkeye State when the next cards of pro football talent are shuffled and dealt in Nashville, Tennessee, from April 25-27.

It’s at least conceivable that a half-dozen of the first 64 picks — we’re talking the first two rounds, here — could be Hawkeyes or Cyclones. Is that the way the seven-round draft will shake out? Probably not. There wouldn’t be dozens of folks making mock drafts as part of their living wage if this business were such a simple science.

Guided by the opinions of 25-year general manager and recent Pro Football Hall of Fame honoree Gil Brandt, who ranked the talent levels of his top 150 prospects, it’s time to give a select breakdown of the top in-state prospects there for the taking. (Note: All draft projections, where available, are as of Wednesday morning.)

So let's sort through all the draft noise.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa (6-foot-5, 251 pounds at NFL Combine)

There’s near-universal agreement that the Chariton product is the piece de resistance at his position, but it’s an uncommon sight to see a tight end reach the top 10. Danny Kelly of the Ringer, who has Hockenson pegged all the way down at No. 20 — what blasphemy! — points out that just two tight ends have been drafted higher than this spot in the past decade.

Take the opinions of just about anybody else, however, and the redshirt sophomore is about to make it three, especially when team executives see what they missed out on in previous Hawkeye George Kittle and what current tight end stars have done over the past half-decade (think recently retired Rob Gronkowski, and Pro Bowlers Travis Kelce and Zach Ertz).

Compared with other first-round talents, Hockenson has been able to keep the private workout and visit schedules of other teams a closely guarded secret, which probably only harbors good news come draft night for the green-room invitee.

What Brandt says of his No. 6 overall prospect: “… Can and will block and is a very good receiver downfield. He will help his team's running game. The very competitive Hockenson played faster than his 4.7 (40-yard dash) time. He also posted a 37.5-inch vertical jump and a 7.02-second three-cone drill at the combine. He will play a long time at a high level and should be a first-year starter in the NFL.”

Mock draft projections

Luke Easterling, USA TODAY DraftWire: No. 8, Detroit Lions

Nate Davis, USA TODAY: No. 5, Denver Broncos (via trade)

Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network: No. 9, Buffalo Bills

R.J. White, CBS Sports: No. 14, Detroit (via trade)

Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN: No. 10, Denver

Todd McShay, ESPN: No. 8, Detroit

DraftTek compendium (a seven-round mock updated weekly): No. 9, Buffalo

► CHAD LEISTIKOW:Hockenson, Fant reunited for Iowa Pro Day

Noah Fant, Iowa, TE (6-4, 249)

Usually the flashier of the Hawkeyes’ 1-2 tight-end punch on the field, Fant has fallen out of relative mock draft favor in recent weeks. There could be any number of reasons why, including teams trying to play coy in an endless game of public media deceptions.

Fant’s perceived struggles in the blocking game and occasional bouts with holding onto the ball could be what have him sinking into the middle of the first-round pack.

That being said, these peccadillos aren’t stopping teams from lining up for the Iowa touchdown record-holder at his position. Reporting from well-connected draft experts has considerable interest being shown from the Bills, Broncos, Lions, Minnesota Vikings and New England Patriots, who have all made multiple check-ins with the junior.

Further, the latter four on that list, along with the New York Jets and the San Francisco 49ers, are reported to have used one of their 30 official “visits” on Fant. Each team can invite 30 prospects to their team facilities for interviews and medical exams.

What Brandt says of his No. 22 overall prospect: “Fant ran a 4.5 40 in Indy at 249 pounds. He's a better receiver than blocker, but he will drop some balls. He has very good athletic ability and will be hard to play against because of his speed.”

Mock draft projections

Easterling: No. 24, Oakland Raiders

Davis: No. 17, Green Bay Packers (via trade)

Jeremiah: No. 24, Oakland

White: No. 20, Pittsburgh Steelers

Kiper Jr.: No. 30, Green Bay

McShay: No. 30, Green Bay

DraftTek compendium: No. 19, Tennessee Titans

► ELITE EVALS:Breaking down Fant and Hockenson's Combine performances

David Montgomery, Iowa State, RB (5-10, 222)

The toughness factor has always been a plus for Montgomery, he of the Pro Football Focus broken tackles fame. Unfortunately, the junior enters the NFL pool at a time where running backs are generally viewed as expendable.

So predicting his relative landing place is more art than architecture. The general consensus is that Montgomery is a late-second to third-round talent. (From Montgomery on in these projections, not every analyst in our short list has each player among their first two rounds of selections. Predictions will be noted where available.)

The Jets have been among Montgomery’s bigger suitors, and the Philadelphia Eagles took interest in him at the NFL Combine. Play a little Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon, and that connection is understandable. Montgomery has drawn fleeting Kareem Hunt comparisons both in style and in the Matt Campbell developmental background. The Kansas City Chiefs found success drafting Hunt in the third round. Current Philly coach Doug Pederson had left the Chiefs by that time, but his respect for Andy Reid’s eye for talent is prodigious.

And so here we could be. (There’s a road to justifying many a prediction, as you see.)

What Brandt says about his No. 48 overall prospect: “Montgomery ran a 4.58 40 at his pro day, where he had a very good workout. He caught the ball well. Montgomery has good quickness, balance and toughness, and he will block. He played well for Iowa State. Montgomery reminds me of Kareem Hunt when Hunt was at Toledo.”

Mock draft and other projections

Easterling: No. 2-rated running back in class

White: No. 80, Cleveland Browns

Kiper Jr.: No official pick, but would be a good Round 3 fit in Tampa Bay

McShay: No official pick, but would be a good Round 3 fit in Minnesota

DraftTek compendium: No. 106, Oakland

► MOVING UP:Montgomery doing his best to climb draft boards

Hakeem Butler, Iowa State, WR (6-5, 227)

The size, athleticism and potential are enticing — there’s no doubt about that. The inconsistency is confounding. There’s less doubt about that, too. But Brandt sees the raw potential as enough to place Butler at No. 60 in his overall prospect rankings.

San Francisco and the two Beltway teams (Baltimore and Washington) are among those who have reportedly courted Butler with visit offers to their facilities.

Mock draft and other projections

Easterling: No. 2-rated receiver in the class

White: No. 66, Pittsburgh

Kiper Jr.: No official pick, but would be a good Round 3 fit in Seattle

McShay: No official pick, but would be a good Round 3 fit in Detroit

DraftTek compendium: No. 26, Indianapolis

► CONFIDENCE:Butler believes he's top receiver available in draft

Amani Hooker, Iowa, S (5-11, 210)

It’ll be “cash” money soon for the reigning Big Ten Conference defensive back of the year, who moved up the draft boards because of his versatility. Kiper appreciates Hooker’s tackling abilities, and thus, his potential to play close to the line of scrimmage. McShay likes Hooker’s on-the-ball skills.

There’s considerable interest on the executive side, too, as Minnesota, Oakland and Tennessee are known to have brought Hooker in for an official visit. Brandt rates Hooker as his No. 61 overall prospect.

Mock draft and other projections

Easterling: No. 6-rated safety in the class

White: No. 92, Kansas City

Kiper Jr.: No official pick, but would be a good Round 2 fit in Carolina

McShay: No official pick, but would be a good Round 3 fit in Jacksonville

DraftTek compendium: No. 110, Cincinnati

► NFL COMBINE:How the Hawkeyes performed in Indianapolis

Anthony Nelson, Iowa, DE (6-7, 271)

Nelson has all the right measurables to be a work in progress. NFL scouts like his explosiveness off the blocks and his overall raw athleticism. They are leery of other rushing qualities popping out on the game tape.

Nevertheless, he received extra Combine attention from Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, and Brandt was impressed enough to make him the final second-round quality selection as his No. 64-ranked player.

Mock draft and other projections

Easterling: No. 9-rated edge defender in the class

White: No. 84, Seattle

Kiper Jr.: No official pick

McShay: No official pick

DraftTek compendium: No. 137, Atlanta

► PRO DAYS:How Hooker, Nelson performed in Iowa City